{"id":9898,"date":"2021-09-06T15:35:12","date_gmt":"2021-09-06T07:35:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.soic.org.tw\/?p=9898"},"modified":"2021-09-06T15:35:12","modified_gmt":"2021-09-06T07:35:12","slug":"dnv-energy-transition-outlook-2021%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e8%bd%89%e5%9e%8b%e6%8a%80%e8%a1%93%e6%91%98%e8%a6%81%e9%bb%9e%e8%a9%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.soic.org.tw\/en\/dnv-energy-transition-outlook-2021%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e8%bd%89%e5%9e%8b%e6%8a%80%e8%a1%93%e6%91%98%e8%a6%81%e9%bb%9e%e8%a9%95\/","title":{"rendered":"DNV Energy Transition Outlook 2021\u80fd\u6e90\u8f49\u578b\u6280\u8853\u6458\u8981\u9ede\u8a55"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u672c\u5831\u544a\u70baDNV 2021\u5e74\u767c\u884c\u520a\u7269\u300c\u80fd\u6e90\u8f49\u578b\u5c55\u671b\u6280\u8853\u9032\u5c55\u5831\u544a(Energy Transition Outlook 2021\uff09\u300d\u90e8\u5206\u5167\u5bb9\uff0c\u63a2\u8a0e\u672a\u4f86\u4e94\u5e74\u4e3b\u6d41\u80fd\u6e90\u8f49\u63db\u6280\u8853\u5c07\u5982\u4f55\u767c\u5c55\u4e26\u4ecb\u7d3910\u9805\u9818\u5148\u80fd\u6e90\u61c9\u7528\u6280\u8853\u3002\u9452\u65bc\u5168\u7403\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u5feb\u5730\u904e\u6e21\u61c9\u5c0d\u5177\u6df1\u5ea6\u53bb\u78b3\u5316\u4e4b\u80fd\u6e90\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u529b\u6bcf\u5e74\u6e1b\u5c11\u7d04 8% \u7684\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u91cf\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u672a\u4f86\u80fd\u6e90\u4f7f\u7528\u7b26\u5408\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u5354\u5b9a\u300b\u8a2d\u5b9a\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u9054\u6210\u9650\u5236\u5168\u7403\u6c23\u6eab\u5347\u9ad8\u5e45\u5ea6\u4ecb\u65bc 1.5\u5ea6\uff5e2\u5ea6\u4e4b\u76ee\u6a19\u3002\u900f\u904e\u9019\u4efd\u5831\u544a\uff0cDNV\u5f9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e3b\u8981\u80fd\u6e90\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u751f\u7522\u7aef\u3001\u904b\u8f38\u7aef\u548c\u6700\u7d42\u4f7f\u7528\u7aef\u5f97\u51fa\u898b\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u6587\u4e2d\u8a55\u679010\u9805\u9818\u5148\u4e4b\u80fd\u6e90\u61c9\u7528\u6280\u8853\u7684\u8aaa\u660e\u6458\u8981\uff0c\u7d9c\u6574\u5982\u4e0b\u8868:<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-9899\" src=\"https:\/\/www.soic.org.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/\u5716\u72471.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1372\" height=\"501\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.soic.org.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/\u5716\u72471.png 1372w, https:\/\/www.soic.org.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/\u5716\u72471-300x110.png 300w, https:\/\/www.soic.org.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/\u5716\u72471-768x280.png 768w, https:\/\/www.soic.org.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/\u5716\u72471-1030x376.png 1030w, https:\/\/www.soic.org.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/\u5716\u72471-705x257.png 705w, https:\/\/www.soic.org.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/\u5716\u72471-450x164.png 450w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1372px) 100vw, 1372px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e00\u3001 \u96e2\u5cb8\u6d6e\u52d5\u5f0f\u98a8\u96fb(Floating wind)<\/strong><br \/>\n\u6d6e\u52d5\u5f0f\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u64f7\u53d6\u5f9e\u6d77\u4e0a\u4e2d\u7372\u5f97\u8c50\u5bcc\u7684\u98a8\u529b\u8cc7\u6e90\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u65bc\u56fa\u5b9a\u5f0f\u6d77\u4e0a\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u76f8\u6bd4\u591a\u4e86\u5c07\u8fd1\u56db\u500d\u4e4b\u591a\u3002\u9019\u70ba\u6d77\u4e0a\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u4e4b\u5834\u57df\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u9748\u6d3b\u6027\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53ef\u4ee5\u9078\u64c7\u5229\u7528\u98a8\u901f\u8f03\u9ad8\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c0d\u74b0\u5f71\u97ff\u8f03\u5c0f\u7684\u5834\u57df\u3002\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u4e94\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5e0c\u671b\u770b\u5230\u6d6e\u5f0f\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u6280\u8853\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u3001\u64f4\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u4e26\u63d0\u9ad8\u9069\u7528\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e8c\u3001 \u592a\u967d\u5149\u96fb\u767c\u96fb\u7cfb\u7d71(Developments in solar PV)<\/strong><br \/>\n\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u5149\u96fb (PV) \u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u589e\u9577\u6700\u5feb\u7684\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u96fb\u529b\u80fd\u6e90\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u9810\u4f30\u5c07\u518d\u7e7c\u7e8c\u52a0\u901f\u589e\u9577\u3002DNV\u53ef\u9810\u898b\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u767c\u96fb\u91cf\u53ef\u5f9e2019\u5e74 0.8 PWh \u589e\u9577\u523030\u500d\uff0c\u9810\u4f302050\u5e74\u9054\u523022PWh\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e09\u3001 \u5ee2\u68c4\u5eda\u9918\u767c\u96fb(Waste to fuel and feedstock)<\/strong><br \/>\n\u5ee2\u68c4\u5eda\u9918\u7269\u6f38\u6f38\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u932f\u7f6e\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\uff0c\u9019\u7279\u5225\u9069\u7528\u7576\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u6bcf\u5e74\u8d85\u904e 20 \u5104\u5678\u7684\u5ee2\u68c4\u5eda\u9918\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u5feb\u901f\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\uff0c2050\u5e74\u5c07\u9810\u4f30\u5c07\u589e\u52a060%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5ee2\u8d77\u5eda\u9918\u7269\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u6709\u6a5f\u7684\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u53ef\u71c3\u7269\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5851\u6599\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u4ee5\u4f86\u4e00\u76f4\u900f\u904e\u711a\u71d2\u4f86\u7372\u53d6\u80fd\u6e90\u3002\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7528\u4e00\u822c\u56fa\u9ad4\u5ee2\u68c4\u5eda\u9918\u7269\u4f5c\u70ba\u5ee2\u68c4\u7269\u80fd\u6e90\u5316\u7684\u4f86\u6e90\u7522\u51fa\u7532\u70f7\u548c\u751f\u7269\u67f4\u6cb9\uff0c\u5df2\u5099\u53d7\u4e16\u754c\u95dc\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u56db\u3001 \u4f4e\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u7ba1\u7dda(Pipelines for low-carbon gases)<\/strong><br \/>\n\u96a8\u8457\u4f86\u81ea\u5229\u5bb3\u95dc\u4fc2\u4eba\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u5e9c\u901a\u904e\u96f6\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u7acb\u6cd5\uff0c\u5de5\u696d\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u901f\u767c\u5c55\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u8feb\u9700\u767c\u5c55\u53bb\u78b3\u5316\u751f\u7522\u53ca\u6d88\u8017\u5206\u5b50\u80fd\u78b3\u6c2b\u5316\u5408\u7269\u4e4b\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u7ba1\u7dda\u5728\u50b3\u9001\u80fd\u6e90\u6642\u626e\u6f14\u95dc\u9375\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u65bc\u65b0\u8a2d\u8a08\u3001\u5efa\u9020\u53ca\u904b\u7dad\u6c92\u6709\u8003\u91cf\u9019\u65b9\u9762\u8a2d\u8a08\u554f\u984c\u7684\u8a71\u5c07\u6703\u627f\u64d4\u5b89\u5168\u53ca\u8ca1\u52d9\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e94\u3001 \u9ad8\u58d3\u76f4\u6d41\u6d77\u4e0a\u8f38\u96fb\u7db2(Meshed HVDC grids)<\/strong><br \/>\nHVDC\uff08\u9ad8\u58d3\u76f4\u6d41\u8f38\u96fb\uff09\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u9577\u8ddd\u96e2\u50b3\u8f38\u5927\u91cf\u96fb\u529b\u548c\u7279\u6b8a\u61c9\u7528\u7684\u9ad8\u6548\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u9452\u65bc\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u662f\u672a\u4f86\u80fd\u6e90\u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u63a8\u624b\uff0cHVDC\u6e96\u78ba\u5730\u5728\u5851\u9020\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u96fb\u7db2\u3002\u9ad8\u58d3\u76f4\u6d41\u6d77\u4e0a\u8f38\u96fb\u7db2\u6210\u672c\u6548\u76ca\u9ad8\uff0c\u53ef\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u9060\u8ddd\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u6574\u5408\u8cc7\u6e90\u3002\u96d6\u7136 HVDC \u9805\u76ee\u53d7\u5230\u9678\u4e0a\u96fb\u7db2\u517c\u5bb9\u6027\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8de8\u5340\u57df\u548c\u570b\u969b\u5408\u4f5c\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e9e\u6d32\u7684HVDC\u96fb\u7db2\u61c9\u7528\u5df2\u7d93\u8b49\u660e\u4e86\u5176\u6280\u8853\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u3002\u5728\u9019\u4e00\u7ae0\u7576\u4e2d\uff0cDNV\u8a0e\u8ad6\u4e86 HVDC \u96fb\u7db2\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ca\u5176\u6f5b\u5728\u57f7\u884c\u4e2d\u7684\u969c\u7919\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u516d\u3001 \u65b0\u96fb\u6c60\u6280\u8853(New battery technology)<\/strong><br \/>\n\u92f0\u96e2\u5b50\u96fb\u6c60\u91cd\u5851\u53ef\u651c\u5f0f\u96fb\u5b50\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u4fc3\u9032\u96fb\u52d5\u6c7d\u8eca\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u6210\u70ba\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7d44\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5728 1970 \u5e74\u4ee3\u9996\u6b21\u88ab\u63d0\u53ca\u4e26\u5728\u65e9\u671f\u7531\u7d22\u5c3c(Sony)\u57281990\u5e74\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u767c\u5c55\u53ef\u651c\u5f0f\u96fb\u5b50\u7522\u54c1\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u8f15\u5de7\u4e14\u529f\u7387\u9ad8\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u96fb\u6c60\u5df2\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u53d6\u4ee3\u4e86\u70ba\u96fb\u6c60\u4f9b\u96fb\u7684\u820a\u9e7c\u6027\u96fb\u6c60\uff0c\u4f8b\u598220 \u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u624b\u96fb\u7b52\u548c\u6536\u97f3\u6a5f\u3002\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u88fd\u9020\u6a21\u5f0f\u5df2\u7d93\u5feb\u901f\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u4e26\u63d0\u9ad8\u92f0\u96e2\u5b50\u96fb\u6c60\u7684\u80fd\u91cf\u5bc6\u5ea6\uff0c\u4f7f\u6301\u4e45\u8010\u7528\u7684\u4fbf\u651c\u5f0f\u96fb\u5b50\u8a2d\u5099\u548c\u96fb\u52d5\u6c7d\u8eca\u6210\u70ba\u5be6\u8e10\u53ef\u80fd\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u9019\u4e9b\u6539\u9032\uff0cDNV\u7814\u7a76\u6307\u51fa\u9810\u8a082032 \u5e74\u5168\u7403\u5c07\u6709\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u81ea\u7528\u8eca\u5c07\u5be6\u73fe\u96fb\u52d5\u5316\u65b9\u5f0f\u552e\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. \u71c3\u6599\u96fb\u6c60<\/strong><br \/>\n\u71c3\u6599\u96fb\u6c60(Fuel Cell) \u6280\u8853\u6b77\u53f2\u60a0\u4e45\uff0c\u53ef\u8ffd\u6714\u5230 19 \u4e16\u7d00\uff0c\u4f46\u5be6\u969b\u61c9\u7528\u662fNASA \u5f9e 1960 \u5e74\u4ee3\u958b\u59cb\u57f7\u884c\u592a\u7a7a\u4efb\u52d9\u958b\u59cb\u3002\u8a72\u6280\u8853\u96a8\u5f8c\u88ab\u61c9\u7528\u5728\u7d55\u6c23\u5f0f\u63a8\u9032\u7cfb\u7d71(AIP)\u6f5b\u8266\u3002\u81ea\u5f9e2000\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u71c3\u6599\u96fb\u6c60\u6280\u8853\u5df2\u7d93\u9010\u6f38\u767c\u5c55\u6210\u719f\u4e26\u6709\u5546\u696d\u61c9\u7528\u5728\u63a8\u9ad8\u6a5f\u3001\u5099\u7528\u767c\u96fb\u6a5f\u53ca\u4e0d\u65b7\u96fb\u4e4b\u96fb\u529b\u4f9b\u61c9\u53ca\u71b1\u80fd\u96c6\u7d50\u7cfb\u7d71\u3002\u71c3\u6599\u96fb\u6c60\u5df2\u767c\u5c55\u5230\u63a5\u8fd1\u80fd\u5546\u7528\u65bc\u6c7d\u8eca\u3001\u516c\u5171\u6c7d\u8eca\u3001\u5361\u8eca\u548c\u9435\u8def\u61c9\u7528\u4e4b\u5730\u6b65\u3002\u8a72\u6280\u8853\u662f\u9577\u671f\u80fd\u9054\u5230\u4f4e\u6392\u78b3\u5316\u4e4b\u5177\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u6280\u8853\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. \u6838\u80fd\u63a8\u9032<\/strong><br \/>\n\u76ee\u524d\u8a55\u4f30\u7684\u6838\u96fb\u6280\u8853\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u81f4\u529b\u65bc\u66f4\u5927\u5e45\u6709\u6548\u6e1b\u5c11\u5546\u8239(\u5982\u6563\u88dd\u8ca8\u8f2a\u3001\u8ca8\u6ac3\u8239\u53ca\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6cb9\u8f2a\u548c\u90f5\u8f2a\uff09\u4e4b\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u4e00\u4e9b\u5c11\u6578\u7684\u6838\u96fb\u8239\u5c31\u6703\u5c0d\u65bc\u5168\u7403\u6392\u653e\u6703\u7522\u751f\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u5149\u662f\u4ee5\u6700\u5927\u7684 1,000\u8258\u8239\u8236\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u7d04\u4f54\u5168\u7403\u822a\u904b\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u7684 10%\uff0c\u7d04 0.3% \u7684\u5168\u7403\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u3002\u6838\u529f\u7387\u4e5f\u53ef\u5c07\u4ee5\u6700\u5c0f\u7684\u6210\u672c\u63d0\u9ad8\u8239\u901f\uff08\u598230-35 \u7bc0\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u65bc\u6e1b\u5c11\u904b\u8f38\u6642\u9593\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u904b\u8f38\u80fd\u91cf\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u589e\u52a0\u904b\u8f38\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u4e00\u8258\u6838\u96fb\u8239\u80fd\u8655\u7406\u5168\u7403\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u822a\u904b\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u5c0d\u6b64\u74b0\u5883\u5177\u6709\u6b63\u9762\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u9060\u8d85\u51fa\u55ae\u7368\u6838\u96fb\u8239\u672c\u8eab\u6240\u80fd\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5229\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e03\u3001 \u65b0\u7a4e\u822a\u904b\u6280\u8853(Novel Shipping Technologies)<\/strong><br \/>\nDNV \u51fa\u520a\u7269\u300cMaritime Forecast to 2050\u300d \u81f4\u529b\u5e6b\u52a9\u8239\u6771\u52a0\u5f37\u6c7a\u7b56\u4ee5\u61c9\u5c0d\u6392\u78b3\u76ee\u6a19\u5728\u6280\u8853\u3001\u76e3\u7ba1\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002 2020\u5e74\uff0cDNV\u958b\u767c\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u60c5\u5883\u8cc7\u6599\u5eab\u3001\u9810\u6e2c\u8239\u968a\u7d44\u6210\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u4f7f\u7528\u3001\u71c3\u6599\u642d\u914d\u7d44\u5408\u4ee5\u53ca\u5230 2050 \u5e74\u7684\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u91cf\u3002DNV\u6a21\u64ec\u4e86 16 \u7a2e\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u71c3\u6599\u985e\u578b\u548c10\u7a2e\u71c3\u6599\u6280\u8853\u7cfb\u7d71\u4e26\u65bc2021\u5e74\u5c07\u6301\u7e8c\u64f4\u5c55\u9019\u9805\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u672c\u6b21\u5831\u544aDNV\u9078\u64c7\u4e86\u8fc4\u4eca\u5c1a\u672a\u6df1\u5165\u4ecb\u7d39\u7684\u65b0\u7a4e\u822a\u904b\u6280\u8853\uff1a\u71c3\u6599\u96fb\u6c60\u6280\u8853\u548c\u6838\u96fb\u3002\u95dc\u65bc\u6838\u96fb\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u4ee3\u6838\u96fb\u6280\u8853\u96d6\u7136\u4e0d\u662f\u822a\u904b\u7684\u8fd1\u671f\u5546\u696d\u5be6\u6cc1\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6838\u5206\u88c2\uff08Nuclear fission\uff09\u300d\u6216\u6838\u878d\u5408\uff08Nuclear fusion\uff09\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u767c\u5c55\u6280\u8853\u4ecd\u7136\u6301\u7e8c\u4e2d\uff0c\u52a9\u76ca\u4e16\u754c\u672a\u4f86\u8239\u968a\u9577\u671f\u96f6\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u9078\u64c7\u65b9\u6848\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u516b\u3001 \u96fb\u52d5\u8eca\u53ca\u96fb\u7db2\u6574\u5408(EVs and grid integration)<\/strong><br \/>\n\u4ea4\u901a\u904b\u8f38\u662f\u9020\u6210\u4e8c\u6c27\u5316\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u7684\u4e3b\u56e0\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5360\u6bd4\u5168\u7403\u7e3d\u80fd\u6e90\u9700\u6c42\u4e4b\u767e\u5206\u4e8c\u5341\u4e03 (118 EJ)\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u8d85\u904e\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e09\u4f86\u81ea\u516c\u8def\u904b\u8f38\u3002\u5230 2050 \u5e74\uff0c\u6c7d\u8eca\u6578\u91cf\u5c07\u589e\u52a0\u7d04 60%\uff0c\u4f46\u80fd\u6e90\u9700\u6c42\u5c07\u7531\u65bc\u96fb\u52d5\u6c7d\u8eca\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u4e0b\u964d\u5230\u4eca\u5929\u6c34\u5e73\u7684 84%\u3002\u9019\u5834\u9769\u547d\u7684\u4e09\u5927\u9a45\u52d5\u529b\u662f\u53bb\u78b3\u3001\u7a7a\u6c23\u6c61\u67d3\u63a7\u5236\u548c\u552e\u50f9\u89aa\u6c11\u7684\u96fb\u52d5\u6c7d\u8eca\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u4e5d\u3001 \u7da0\u6c2b\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90 (Green hydrogen production)<\/strong><br \/>\n\u6c2b\u80fd\u65e5\u76ca\u53d7\u5230\u77da\u76ee\uff0c\u7528\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u88fd\u53d6\u7684\u6c2b\u4e5f\u53eb\u201c\u7da0\u6c2b\u201d\uff0c\u5df2\u6210\u70ba\u5be6\u73fe\u91cd\u5de5\u696d\u548c\u904b\u8f38\u696d\u5be6\u73fe\u6de8\u96f6\u6392\u653e\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u8981\u7d20\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u6de8\u96f6\u6392\u653e\u627f\u8afe\uff0c\u57fa\u65bc\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u7684\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u767c\u96fb\uff0c\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u6280\u8853\u6539\u9032\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u96fb\u529b\u7cfb\u7d71\u9748\u6d3b\u6027\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u597d\u8655\uff0c DNV\u9810\u6e2c\u5168\u7403\u5c0d\u6c2b\u80fd\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4f5c\u70ba\u80fd\u6e90\u8f09\u9ad4\u5c07\u5f9e 2019 \u5e74\u7684\u5e7e\u4e4e\u70ba\u96f6\u589e\u9577\u52302050\u5e74\u7684\u6bcf\u5e74\u7522\u80fd24 EJ\u3002\u4e3b\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u5728\u88fd\u9020\u548c\u904b\u8f38\u90e8\u9580\uff0c\u6301\u7e8c\u589e\u52a0\u6c2b\u7684\u975e\u80fd\u6e90\u4f7f\u7528\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u80a5\u6599\u548c\u539f\u6599\u3002DNV\u5373\u5c072021\u5e74\u51fa\u520a\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u8f49\u578b\u5c55\u671b\u5831\u544a\u5167\u5bb9\u5305\u62ec\u78b3\u50f9\u683c\u5f71\u97ff\u6c2b\u6c23\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u654f\u611f\u6027\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5341\u3001 \u78b3\u7684\u6355\u96c6\u8207\u5c01\u5b58\u6280\u8853(Carbon Capture and Storage 2.0)<\/strong><br \/>\n\u806f\u5408\u570b\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u9593\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u5c08\u9580\u59d4\u54e1\u6703(IPCC)\u300d\u53ca\u300c\u653f\u5e9c\u9593\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u5c08\u9580\u59d4\u54e1\u6703(IPCC)\u300d\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u78b3\u7684\u6355\u96c6\u8207\u5c01\u5b58\u6280\u8853(CCS) \u662f\u5be6\u73fe\u5df4\u9ece\u5354\u5b9a\u6c23\u5019\u76ee\u6a19\u4e4b\u5fc5\u8981\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5118\u7ba1 CCS \u9577\u671f\u4ee5\u4f86\u88ab\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u5c0d\u5176\u4ed6\u201c\u66f4\u597d\u201d\u7684\u812b\u78b3\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6848\u6bd4\u8f03\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5bb9\u6613\u88ab\u8a8d\u70ba\u672a\u6210\u719f\u4e14\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u65c1\u9580\u5de6\u9053\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u6211\u5011\u770b\u5230\u4e16\u4eba\u5c0d\u9019\u9805\u6280\u8853\u91cd\u65b0\u7522\u751f\u8208\u8da3\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u6210\u70ba\u5be6\u73fe\u6de8\u96f6\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u6c34\u6e96\u7684\u6709\u6548\u65b9\u6cd5\u548c\u80fd\u4f7f\u4eba\u5011\u904e\u6e21\u5230\u6de8\u96f6\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a2021\/12\uff0cEnergy Transition Outlook 2021<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u672c\u5831\u544a\u70baDNV 2021\u5e74\u767c\u884c\u520a\u7269\u300c\u80fd\u6e90\u8f49\u578b\u5c55\u671b\u6280\u8853\u9032\u5c55\u5831\u544a(Energy Transition Outlook 2021\uff09\u300d\u90e8\u5206\u5167\u5bb9\uff0c\u63a2\u8a0e\u672a\u4f86\u4e94\u5e74\u4e3b\u6d41\u80fd\u6e90\u8f49\u63db\u6280\u8853\u5c07\u5982\u4f55\u767c\u5c55\u4e26\u4ecb\u7d3910\u9805\u9818\u5148\u80fd\u6e90\u61c9\u7528\u6280\u8853\u3002\u9452\u65bc\u5168\u7403\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u5feb\u5730\u904e\u6e21\u61c9\u5c0d\u5177\u6df1\u5ea6\u53bb\u78b3\u5316\u4e4b\u80fd\u6e90\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f4\u529b\u6bcf\u5e74\u6e1b\u5c11\u7d04 8% \u7684\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u91cf\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u672a\u4f86\u80fd\u6e90\u4f7f\u7528\u7b26\u5408\u300a\u5df4\u9ece\u5354\u5b9a\u300b\u8a2d\u5b9a\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u9054\u6210\u9650\u5236\u5168\u7403\u6c23\u6eab\u5347\u9ad8\u5e45\u5ea6\u4ecb\u65bc 1.5\u5ea6\uff5e2\u5ea6\u4e4b\u76ee\u6a19\u3002\u900f\u904e\u9019\u4efd\u5831\u544a\uff0cDNV\u5f9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e3b\u8981\u80fd\u6e90\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u5de5\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u751f\u7522\u7aef\u3001\u904b\u8f38\u7aef\u548c\u6700\u7d42\u4f7f\u7528\u7aef\u5f97\u51fa\u898b\u89e3\u3002 \u6587\u4e2d\u8a55\u679010\u9805\u9818\u5148\u4e4b\u80fd\u6e90\u61c9\u7528\u6280\u8853\u7684\u8aaa\u660e\u6458\u8981\uff0c\u7d9c\u6574\u5982\u4e0b\u8868: \u4e00\u3001 \u96e2\u5cb8\u6d6e\u52d5\u5f0f\u98a8\u96fb(Floating wind) \u6d6e\u52d5\u5f0f\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u64f7\u53d6\u5f9e\u6d77\u4e0a\u4e2d\u7372\u5f97\u8c50\u5bcc\u7684\u98a8\u529b\u8cc7\u6e90\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u65bc\u56fa\u5b9a\u5f0f\u6d77\u4e0a\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u76f8\u6bd4\u591a\u4e86\u5c07\u8fd1\u56db\u500d\u4e4b\u591a\u3002\u9019\u70ba\u6d77\u4e0a\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u4e4b\u5834\u57df\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u9748\u6d3b\u6027\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53ef\u4ee5\u9078\u64c7\u5229\u7528\u98a8\u901f\u8f03\u9ad8\u4ee5\u53ca\u5c0d\u74b0\u5f71\u97ff\u8f03\u5c0f\u7684\u5834\u57df\u3002\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u4e94\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5e0c\u671b\u770b\u5230\u6d6e\u5f0f\u98a8\u529b\u767c\u96fb\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u6280\u8853\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u3001\u64f4\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u4e26\u63d0\u9ad8\u9069\u7528\u6027\u3002 \u4e8c\u3001 \u592a\u967d\u5149\u96fb\u767c\u96fb\u7cfb\u7d71(Developments in solar PV) \u592a\u967d\u80fd\u5149\u96fb (PV) \u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u589e\u9577\u6700\u5feb\u7684\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u96fb\u529b\u80fd\u6e90\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u9810\u4f30\u5c07\u518d\u7e7c\u7e8c\u52a0\u901f\u589e\u9577\u3002DNV\u53ef\u9810\u898b\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u767c\u96fb\u91cf\u53ef\u5f9e2019\u5e74 0.8 PWh \u589e\u9577\u523030\u500d\uff0c\u9810\u4f302050\u5e74\u9054\u523022PWh\u3002 \u4e09\u3001 \u5ee2\u68c4\u5eda\u9918\u767c\u96fb(Waste to fuel and feedstock) \u5ee2\u68c4\u5eda\u9918\u7269\u6f38\u6f38\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u932f\u7f6e\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\uff0c\u9019\u7279\u5225\u9069\u7528\u7576\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u6bcf\u5e74\u8d85\u904e 20 \u5104\u5678\u7684\u5ee2\u68c4\u5eda\u9918\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u5feb\u901f\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\uff0c2050\u5e74\u5c07\u9810\u4f30\u5c07\u589e\u52a060%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5ee2\u8d77\u5eda\u9918\u7269\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u6709\u6a5f\u7684\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u53ef\u71c3\u7269\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5851\u6599\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u4ee5\u4f86\u4e00\u76f4\u900f\u904e\u711a\u71d2\u4f86\u7372\u53d6\u80fd\u6e90\u3002\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7528\u4e00\u822c\u56fa\u9ad4\u5ee2\u68c4\u5eda\u9918\u7269\u4f5c\u70ba\u5ee2\u68c4\u7269\u80fd\u6e90\u5316\u7684\u4f86\u6e90\u7522\u51fa\u7532\u70f7\u548c\u751f\u7269\u67f4\u6cb9\uff0c\u5df2\u5099\u53d7\u4e16\u754c\u95dc\u6ce8\u3002 \u56db\u3001 \u4f4e\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u7ba1\u7dda(Pipelines for low-carbon gases) \u96a8\u8457\u4f86\u81ea\u5229\u5bb3\u95dc\u4fc2\u4eba\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u5e9c\u901a\u904e\u96f6\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u7acb\u6cd5\uff0c\u5de5\u696d\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u901f\u767c\u5c55\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u8feb\u9700\u767c\u5c55\u53bb\u78b3\u5316\u751f\u7522\u53ca\u6d88\u8017\u5206\u5b50\u80fd\u78b3\u6c2b\u5316\u5408\u7269\u4e4b\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6848\u3002\u7ba1\u7dda\u5728\u50b3\u9001\u80fd\u6e90\u6642\u626e\u6f14\u95dc\u9375\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u65bc\u65b0\u8a2d\u8a08\u3001\u5efa\u9020\u53ca\u904b\u7dad\u6c92\u6709\u8003\u91cf\u9019\u65b9\u9762\u8a2d\u8a08\u554f\u984c\u7684\u8a71\u5c07\u6703\u627f\u64d4\u5b89\u5168\u53ca\u8ca1\u52d9\u98a8\u96aa\u3002 \u4e94\u3001 \u9ad8\u58d3\u76f4\u6d41\u6d77\u4e0a\u8f38\u96fb\u7db2(Meshed HVDC grids) HVDC\uff08\u9ad8\u58d3\u76f4\u6d41\u8f38\u96fb\uff09\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u9577\u8ddd\u96e2\u50b3\u8f38\u5927\u91cf\u96fb\u529b\u548c\u7279\u6b8a\u61c9\u7528\u7684\u9ad8\u6548\u66ff\u4ee3\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u9452\u65bc\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u662f\u672a\u4f86\u80fd\u6e90\u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u63a8\u624b\uff0cHVDC\u6e96\u78ba\u5730\u5728\u5851\u9020\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u96fb\u7db2\u3002\u9ad8\u58d3\u76f4\u6d41\u6d77\u4e0a\u8f38\u96fb\u7db2\u6210\u672c\u6548\u76ca\u9ad8\uff0c\u53ef\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u9060\u8ddd\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u6574\u5408\u8cc7\u6e90\u3002\u96d6\u7136 HVDC \u9805\u76ee\u53d7\u5230\u9678\u4e0a\u96fb\u7db2\u517c\u5bb9\u6027\u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8de8\u5340\u57df\u548c\u570b\u969b\u5408\u4f5c\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e9e\u6d32\u7684HVDC\u96fb\u7db2\u61c9\u7528\u5df2\u7d93\u8b49\u660e\u4e86\u5176\u6280\u8853\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u3002\u5728\u9019\u4e00\u7ae0\u7576\u4e2d\uff0cDNV\u8a0e\u8ad6\u4e86 HVDC \u96fb\u7db2\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ca\u5176\u6f5b\u5728\u57f7\u884c\u4e2d\u7684\u969c\u7919\u3002 \u516d\u3001 \u65b0\u96fb\u6c60\u6280\u8853(New battery technology) \u92f0\u96e2\u5b50\u96fb\u6c60\u91cd\u5851\u53ef\u651c\u5f0f\u96fb\u5b50\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u4fc3\u9032\u96fb\u52d5\u6c7d\u8eca\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u6210\u70ba\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7d44\u6210\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5728 1970 \u5e74\u4ee3\u9996\u6b21\u88ab\u63d0\u53ca\u4e26\u5728\u65e9\u671f\u7531\u7d22\u5c3c(Sony)\u57281990\u5e74\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u767c\u5c55\u53ef\u651c\u5f0f\u96fb\u5b50\u7522\u54c1\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u8f15\u5de7\u4e14\u529f\u7387\u9ad8\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u96fb\u6c60\u5df2\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u53d6\u4ee3\u4e86\u70ba\u96fb\u6c60\u4f9b\u96fb\u7684\u820a\u9e7c\u6027\u96fb\u6c60\uff0c\u4f8b\u598220 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